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Section 5: Resource Allocation & Time Investment

This section defines weekly reallocation rules for first-6-month growth bandwidth in a pre-mainnet prediction-market launch context (E2, E3, E4).

References: E2 E3 E4

How to Use This Section

No cited case-study source publishes an exact team-time percentage formula, so this section intentionally uses decision gates instead of static allocation splits. E2 E3 E4

  • Polymarket/Kalshi/Novig evidence favors direct operator distribution early. E34 E58 E59 E60 E65 E66
  • DraftKings/FanDuel evidence is used as historical control for sequencing (narrow launch, staged expansion), not as direct modern channel evidence for 2026 execution. E46 E49 E50 E51 E90

Time Allocation Decision Gates (First 6 Months)

Run this review weekly:

  1. Keep/increase time only if a function improves retained-trader quality and liquidity quality together.
  2. Cap/cut time if it improves top-of-funnel volume without first-trade completion and D30 cohort quality.
  3. Reallocate immediately to trust/compliance operations when dispute backlog, abuse flags, or enforcement risk rises. E10 E11

Pre-Launch (Before Mainnet): If/Then Gates

  1. Founder/operator community operations stay first while launch-thread response demand and onboarding support demand are both high. E58 E59 E60
  2. Market design + settlement QA comes before catalog expansion; add markets only when resolution quality holds. E30 E11
  3. Onboarding friction work moves up immediately when first-trade completion falls or support backlog rises. E1 E2
  4. Paid experiments remain capped until early cohorts show retention and liquidity contribution quality, not just signup volume. E4 E8 E9

Post-Launch (First 90 Days): If/Then Gates

  1. Liquidity operations take top priority whenever spread/depth/fill SLOs miss targets on core markets. E3
  2. Retention/reactivation work precedes channel expansion when D7/D30 cohort quality weakens. E4
  3. Founder/operator distribution stays funded only where source cohorts convert to repeat traders. E58 E65 E66
  4. Trust/compliance/risk workflows are non-discretionary under active regulatory scrutiny. E10 E11

Operating Rule

Treat time allocation as a rolling evidence decision system: every week, re-justify each major time bucket against retained cohorts, liquidity quality, and risk exposure; remove buckets that fail this test for two consecutive windows (E2, E4, E3).

References: E2 E4