Section 6: Budget Framework
This budget is a trigger-based framework tied to early winning patterns in the case studies, not a fixed spend template.
- Polymarket/Kalshi/Novig: manual operator distribution and onboarding support appear first. E34 E58 E59 E60 E65 E66
- DraftKings/FanDuel: launch windows show narrow initial formats with staged expansion once product loops are measurable. E46 E49 E50 E51 E90
Budget Order (First 6 Months)
1) Liquidity and Market Quality (Core Line Item)
Use as the largest controllable line after launch.
- Purpose: spread/depth/fill reliability on priority markets.
- Trigger to increase: sustained improvement in liquidity metrics + retained cohort quality.
- Trigger to cut/reallocate: degraded fill reliability or weak retained-volume quality.
Budget posture: treat this as the largest controllable post-launch line item.
2) Founder/Operator Distribution and Community Operations
- Purpose: direct outreach, onboarding support, and feedback loops in high-intent communities.
- Trigger to increase: rising funded activation from operator-led cohorts.
- Trigger to cut/reallocate: high top-of-funnel response with weak funded/retained conversion.
Budget posture: reserve dedicated operator capacity from launch.
3) Referral / Incentive Programs (Quality-Gated)
- Purpose: accelerate qualified acquisition, not raw signup volume.
- Qualification gate: deposit + first trade + retained activity threshold.
- Hard stop-loss: pause when retention/GMV-retention cohorts miss targets.
Budget posture: cap and reverse quickly when retained quality weakens.
4) Paid Acquisition Experiments (Only After Conversion Proof)
- Purpose: controlled channel tests, not scale spend.
- Start condition: onboarding friction and first-trade conversion are stable.
- Scale condition: payback, retention, and liquidity contribution hold by cohort.
Budget posture: keep a small experiment pool until economics are repeatedly validated.
5) Programmatic Discovery (SEO + PSEO + LLM SEO)
Use only after market quality and settlement quality are stable.
- SEO: canonical pages (market explainers, methodology, resolution references).
- PSEO: scaled market pages only with unique data + non-thin analysis.
- LLM SEO: answer-engine-ready structure (clear entities, concise Q&A, source citations).
- Publish gate: reject thin or unverifiable generated pages. E5 E6
Budget posture: fund only quality-gated content systems and QA/editorial operations.
6) Trust, Risk, and Compliance Operations
- Purpose: maintain market integrity while acquisition scales.
- Trigger to increase: incident volume, dispute latency, or abuse flags rise.
- Never defer: escalation routing and incident response ownership.
Budget posture: maintain non-discretionary baseline coverage for people and monitoring tooling.
Pre-Launch Budget Use (Monthly)
Before mainnet, budget should validate:
- First-trade activation quality
- Operator-led community pull
- Market-definition and settlement clarity
- Instrumentation for liquidity and cohort quality
Operating Rule
Budget follows evidence and cohort quality:
- Scale only what improves liquidity + retention together.
- Keep paid/performance in experiment mode until quality gates pass.
- Keep programmatic discovery quality-gated (
SEO,PSEO,LLM SEO) from day one.