1.7 Evidence Map (Primary Sources Used in March 2026 Revision)

Core Growth and Market References

• E1 — Paul Graham, Do Things That Don’t Scale (manual acquisition, partnership caution): https://www.paulgraham.com/ds.html
• E2 — Paul Graham, Startup = Growth (weekly growth-rate discipline): https://www.paulgraham.com/growth.html
• E3 — a16z, Marketplace Glossary (liquidity as core marketplace metric): https://a16z.com/the-marketplace-glossary/
• E4 — a16z, GMV Retention (cohort health and marketplace retention): https://a16z.com/gmv-retention-the-marketplace-metric-most-ignore/
• E5 — Google Search Central Blog (March 2024 core/spam updates; scaled content abuse): https://developers.google.com/search/blog/2024/03/core-update-spam-policies
• E6 — Google Search Central docs (people-first, helpful/reliable content guidance): https://developers.google.com/search/docs/fundamentals/creating-helpful-content
• E7 — Nasdaq exchange matching tech page (sub-40 usec, 14 usec implementation): https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/fintech/nasdaq-eqlipse/trading-technology/exchange-matching
• E8 — DraftKings 2025 Form 10-K (sales and marketing $1.379B; costly acquisition risk language): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1883685/000188368526000013/dkng-20251231.htm
• E9 — Flutter 2024 annual filing (sales and marketing $3.205B): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635327/000162828025009852/flut-20241231.htm
• E10 — CFTC Press Release 9179-26 (Feb 4, 2026 withdrawal of 2024 event-contract proposal): https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9179-26
• E11 — CFTC Press Release 9185-26 (Feb 25, 2026 prediction-markets enforcement advisory): https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26
• E12 — Robinhood 2025 Form 10-K (Rothera JV and Jan 20, 2026 MIAXdx acquisition): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000023/hood-20251231.htm

AI-Native and Automation System References

These references support automation implementation choices (tooling, evaluation, and guardrails). They are not primary case-study evidence for early user-acquisition behavior.

• E13 — OpenAI Cookbook: Function calling/tool orchestration pattern: https://cookbook.openai.com/examples/how_to_call_functions_with_chat_models
• E14 — OpenAI Cookbook: Batch workflow processing pattern: https://cookbook.openai.com/examples/batch_processing
• E15 — OpenAI Cookbook: Getting started with OpenAI Evals (continuous evaluation): https://cookbook.openai.com/examples/evaluation/getting_started_with_openai_evals
• E16 — OpenAI Cookbook: Structured Outputs intro: https://cookbook.openai.com/examples/structured_outputs_intro
• E17 — Meta Business: Meta Advantage+ campaigns/product overview: https://www.facebook.com/business/ads/meta-advantage-plus
• E18 — Google Ads Help: Value-based Smart Bidding guidance: https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/6268632
• E19 — Google Analytics Help: Predictive audiences (behavior-signal segmentation): https://support.google.com/analytics/answer/9846734
• E20 — Ethereum.org: Proof-of-Stake finality reference: https://ethereum.org/en/developers/docs/consensus-mechanisms/pos/#finality
• E21 — Ethereum.org: Transaction lifecycle reference (submitted/included/confirmed context): https://ethereum.org/en/developers/docs/transactions/
• E22 — Chainlink Docs: Data feed selection and risk mitigation: https://docs.chain.link/data-feeds/selecting-data-feeds#risk-mitigation
• E23 — OpenZeppelin Defender Docs: Monitor module for smart-contract risk alerting: https://docs.openzeppelin.com/defender/module/monitor

Public-Forum Links and Launch Discovery References

• E24 — HN thread: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) with score/comments metadata: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33696486
• E25 — HN Launches index entry containing Kalshi score/comments listing: https://news.ycombinator.com/launches?next=34505603
• E26 — HN story by tmansour (Regulated Election Markets, Aug 29, 2022) linking founder statement: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32642005
• E27 — X post by @TheStalwart (Joe Weisenthal, Jan 18, 2024) referencing Polymarket market odds: https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1748099622822728098
• E28 — X post by @Novig (official account, Sep 4, 2025) linking app.novig.us desktop launch: https://x.com/Novig/status/1963641385807921336
• E29 — X post by @mattkalish (DraftKings co-founder, Jul 7, 2020) linking draftkings.com/tech-for-heroes: https://x.com/mattkalish/status/1280572019533373443

Company-Specific First-Month GTM Evidence

• E30 — CFTC Order (Polymarket): operation began approximately June 2020; over 900 event markets by Jan 2022: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22
• E31 — Wayback (Polymarket product homepage snapshot, Oct 22, 2020): https://web.archive.org/web/20201022083220/https://polymarket.com/
• E32 — pullpush Reddit query (Polymarket, Jun 1-Aug 1 2020, count=9): https://api.pullpush.io/reddit/search/submission/?q=polymarket&after=1590969600&before=1596240000&size=100&sort=asc&sort_type=created_utc
• E33 — Reddit permalink (r/Augur, ‘The Polymarket Playbook’, Jun 12, 2020; may be unavailable/removed in some retrieval contexts): https://www.reddit.com/r/Augur/comments/h7ori4/the_polymarket_playbook/
• E34 — Reddit permalink (r/Polymarket Lounge, Jun 19, 2020; may be unavailable/removed in some retrieval contexts): https://www.reddit.com/r/Polymarket/comments/hc5jos/rpolymarket_lounge/
• E35 — Kalshi news post (archived): ‘The Kalshi Public Beta is Live’ (datePublished Jul 26, 2021): https://web.archive.org/web/20251219054410/https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-public-beta-is-live
• E36 — pullpush Reddit query (Kalshi, Jul 1-Sep 1 2021, count=8): https://api.pullpush.io/reddit/search/submission/?q=kalshi&after=1625097600&before=1630454400&size=100&sort=asc&sort_type=created_utc
• E37 — Reddit permalink (r/Kalshi, ‘Why are fees so high?’, Jul 1, 2021): https://www.reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments/obrbvw/why_are_fees_so_high/
• E39 — TechCrunch (Aug 30, 2021): This Sequoia- and Henry Kravis-backed prediction market wants to turn opinions into money: https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/30/this-sequoia-and-henry-kravis-backed-prediction-market-wants-to-turn-opinions-into-money/
• E40 — TechCrunch (Mar 18, 2019): YC W19 Demo Day startup list including Kalshi: https://techcrunch.com/2019/03/18/here-are-the-85-startups-that-launched-today-at-y-combinators-w19-demo-day-1/
• E41 — TechCrunch (Dec 14, 2022): earliest Polymarket mention retrievable in this pass: https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/14/despite-the-crypto-winter-and-other-scandals-blockchains-seem-here-to-stay-in-the-sports-betting-market/
• E43 — TechCrunch WP API search for Novig (empty result set in this pass): https://techcrunch.com/wp-json/wp/v2/posts?search=Novig&per_page=100&page=1&orderby=date&order=asc
• E44 — pullpush Reddit query (Novig, Nov 1 2023-Jan 1 2024, count=0): https://api.pullpush.io/reddit/search/submission/?q=novig&after=1698796800&before=1704067200&size=100&sort=asc&sort_type=created_utc
• E45 — HN Algolia in-window query (novig.us, Nov 1 2023-Jan 1 2024, nbHits=0): https://hn.algolia.com/api/v1/search_by_date?query=novig.us&tags=story&numericFilters=created_at_i%3E%3D1698796800%2Ccreated_at_i%3C%3D1704067200&hitsPerPage=20
• E46 — Wayback (DraftKings earliest capture in this pass, Apr 8, 2012): https://web.archive.org/web/20120408145644/http://www.draftkings.com/
• E49 — TechCrunch (Sep 7, 2012): DraftKings’s Big Baller App Is A Made For Mobile Fantasy Sports Experience: https://techcrunch.com/2012/09/07/draftkingss-big-baller-app-is-a-made-for-mobile-fantasy-sports-experience/
• E50 — Wayback (FanDuel early capture, Apr 20, 2009): https://web.archive.org/web/20090420030506/http://www.fanduel.com/
• E51 — TechCrunch (Jul 21, 2009): FanDuel turns fantasy sports betting into a social game: https://techcrunch.com/2009/07/21/fanduel-turns-fantasy-sports-betting-into-a-social-game/
• E56 — Wayback (Novig snapshot Nov 8, 2022 title: ‘Novig - The Future of Sports Betting’): https://web.archive.org/web/20221108083839/https://www.novig.us/
• E58 — pullpush Reddit query for submissions by shaynecoplan (includes Jun 19, 2020 r/Polymarket Lounge): https://api.pullpush.io/reddit/search/submission/?author=shaynecoplan&after=1590969600&before=1604188800&size=500&sort=asc&sort_type=created_utc
• E59 — pullpush comment id h4z3jlm (sumersao: “the exchange is live now @ kalshi.com”, Jul 12, 2021): https://api.pullpush.io/reddit/search/comment/?ids=h4z3jlm
• E60 — pullpush comment id h8q0z5y (sumersao: “The app is in the works!”, Aug 12, 2021): https://api.pullpush.io/reddit/search/comment/?ids=h8q0z5y
• E61 — pullpush comment id hjquoj0 (liortulip self-identifies as a Kalshi software engineer, Nov 8, 2021): https://api.pullpush.io/reddit/search/comment/?ids=hjquoj0
• E62 — pullpush comment id hl6r3o4 (liortulip asks for sign-up bonus/referral feedback, Nov 18, 2021): https://api.pullpush.io/reddit/search/comment/?ids=hl6r3o4
• E63 — pullpush comment id hl6r9o1 (liortulip acknowledges paper-trading onboarding idea, Nov 18, 2021): https://api.pullpush.io/reddit/search/comment/?ids=hl6r9o1
• E64 — pullpush comment id hl6ri3x (liortulip API starter-code support + PM for issues, Nov 18, 2021): https://api.pullpush.io/reddit/search/comment/?ids=hl6ri3x
• E65 — PRNewswire (Jan 4, 2024): Novig Colorado launch release with founder quote (Jacob Fortinsky): https://web.archive.org/web/20240105020419/https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/novig-debuts-first-of-its-kind-commission-free-sports-betting-app-in-colorado-302026625.html
• E66 — GamblingInsider (Dec 5, 2023): Intelitics partnership for Novig affiliate + paid-channel acquisition in Colorado, includes Novig Head of Growth quote: https://web.archive.org/web/20240724153213/https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/23255/intelitics-partners-with-novig-for-colorado-expansion
• E67 — Sports Business Journal (Feb 6, 2012): FanDuel in-depth profile (active URL path in this pass): https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Journal/Issues/2012/02/06/In-Depth/FanDuel/
• E68 — FanDuel founder context substituted with durable launch-period source (TechCrunch, Jul 21, 2009): https://techcrunch.com/2009/07/21/fanduel-turns-fantasy-sports-betting-into-a-social-game/
• E69 — Novig newsroom post (Dec 5, 2023): “Novig Announces Partnership with Intelitics”; first-party confirmation of affiliate + paid-channel focus and link to Intelitics announcement: https://www.novig.us/articles/novig-announces-partnership-with-intelitics
• E88 — PRNewswire (Oct 3, 2023): Novig secured Colorado Internet Sports Betting Operator license and announced fall-launch timing: https://web.archive.org/web/20231018174412/https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/novig-secures-co-license-paving-the-way-for-fall-launch-301945730.html
• E89 — PRNewswire (Aug 22, 2023): Novig announced $6.4M seed funding, founder background, and Colorado launch framing: https://web.archive.org/web/20240105055436/https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/novig-announces-6-4m-in-seed-funding-from-leading-investors-ahead-of-launch-in-colorado-301906148.html
• E90 — Boston Globe (May 1, 2017): DraftKings origin profile (founders leaving VistaPrint, early 2012 first contest details): https://www.boston.com/news/business/2017/05/01/five-years-later-draftkings-readies-for-its-second-act/

Robinhood Early-Growth Evidence

• E70 — TechCrunch (Sep 23, 2014): Robinhood raised $13M and reported half a million waitlist signups pre-launch: https://techcrunch.com/2014/09/23/robinhood-stock-app/
• E71 — TechCrunch (Dec 11, 2014): Robinhood launch coverage citing 500,000 waitlist signups: https://techcrunch.com/2014/12/11/robinhood-free-stock-trading/
• E72 — CNBC (Feb 27, 2014): Robinhood coverage citing more than 150,000 people on the waiting list: https://www.cnbc.com/2014/02/27/robinhood-a-new-app-offers-free-stock-trades.html
• E73 — Robinhood S-1 filing (Jul 1, 2021): over 80% of new funded customers in 2020 and Q1 2021 acquired organically or through referral program: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000162828021013318/robinhoods-1.htm

Channel and AI-Native Content Distribution References (2025-2026)

• E74 — LinkedIn Marketing Solutions: Thought Leader Ads overview (supported objectives, creator-permission model, format constraints): https://business.linkedin.com/marketing-solutions/native-advertising/thought-leader-ads
• E75 — LinkedIn for Marketing (Aug 13, 2025): Introducing Thought Leader Event Ads; cites 1.6x higher engagement for Thought Leader Ads vs single image ads: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/introducing-thought-leader-event-ads-build-trust-influence-pcelc
• E76 — Reddit Business Blog: Reddit Ads strategy best practices (goals/KPIs/community-native creative/testing guidance): https://www.business.reddit.com/blog/reddit-ads-best-practices-strategy
• E77 — Instagram for Business: Instagram Best Practices hub (creative, format, and measurement guidance): https://business.instagram.com/instagram-best-practices
• E78 — Meta newsroom (Jan 28, 2026): 2026 AI update including ads improvements, Meta AI business assistant testing, and Instagram recommendation originality metrics: https://about.fb.com/news/2026/01/2026-ai-drives-performance/
• E79 — Meta newsroom (Apr 24, 2025): spammy-content crackdown and original creator protection signals: https://about.fb.com/news/2025/04/cracking-down-spammy-content-facebook/
• E80 — TikTok Newsroom (Jun 16, 2025): Symphony AI creative tools update for scalable content production: https://newsroom.tiktok.com/en-us/creativity-at-scale-meet-our-latest-symphony-generative-ai-tools
• E81 — TikTok Newsroom (Jan 14, 2026): TikTok Next 2026 trend forecast for marketers (AI + data + creator/community strategy): https://newsroom.tiktok.com/introducing-tiktok-next-2026-our-trend-forecast-for-marketers-for-the-year-ahead-ca
• E82 — Reddit Inc. News (Jan 5, 2026): Max campaigns beta for AI-powered ad optimization: https://redditinc.com/news/now-in-beta-max-campaigns-for-ai-powered-ad-performance-and-unique-audience-insights
• E83 — Cloudflare Blog (Dec 15, 2025): 2025 year in review including AI crawler traffic and bot-share metrics: https://blog.cloudflare.com/radar-2025-year-in-review/
• E84 — Similarweb (Jul 29, 2025): AI referral traffic by industry, including LinkedIn among top tech/social AI-referral domains: https://www.similarweb.com/blog/insights/ai-news/ai-referral-traffic-winners/
• E85 — arXiv (Feb 6, 2025): Signals in the Noise: How Smart Is Social Media for Business Analysis? (X/Twitter engagement analysis): https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.04593
• E87 — arXiv (Nov 11, 2024): Intraday Trading Algorithm with Twitter Sentiment and Dynamic Stop-Loss for Cryptocurrency Markets: https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.06567
• E96 — Robinhood newsroom (Jan 5, 2015): #RobinhoodRewind 2014; first-party statement that over 600,000 signed up for early access and over 150,000 were invited post-launch, with mention of broad top-tier media coverage: https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/robinhoodrewind-2014/
• E91 — Google Search Status Dashboard ranking history (shows 2025 and 2026 core/spam/discover update cadence): https://status.search.google.com/products/rGHU1u87FJnkP6W2GwMi/history
• E92 — OpenAI product launch (Oct 31, 2024) and adoption update (Feb 5, 2025) for ChatGPT Search (expanded from paid users to all available regions): https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-search/
• E93 — OpenAI product launch (Jan 23, 2025) and integration update (Jul 17, 2025) for Operator into ChatGPT agent mode: https://openai.com/index/introducing-operator/
• E94 — OpenAI product launch (Oct 21, 2025) for ChatGPT Atlas; page notes ChatGPT Search had quickly become one of ChatGPT’s most-used features: https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-atlas/
• E95 — OpenAI API launch (Apr 14, 2025) for GPT-4.1 series; includes migration signal by deprecating GPT-4.5 preview in July 2025: https://openai.com/index/gpt-4-1/